In just under five months Democratic
presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may be sleeping soundly in the White
House. Before election day arrives on 8 November, however, she may be tossing
and turning in bed, wondering if there's something out there that could derail
her presidential ambitions.
While the former first lady has a
poll lead that ranges from dead heat to slightly ahead and an electoral playing
field that gives her a decided advantage, Republican nominee Donald Trump -
despite an up-and-down past month - remains in striking distance.
Whether this is a reflection of Mrs
Clinton's weaknesses as a candidate or Mr Trump's unconventional appeal, the
reality is the race could still tip towards the Republican if something breaks
his way.
Here are five reasons why Mrs
Clinton could suffer from election-related insomnia despite conventional wisdom
that has favoured her for months.
Unexpected
events
There are the things a candidate can
control - the message, the on-the-ground organising, the advertising campaigns.
Then there are the "black swans" - unpredictable on-off events that
can render all of those preparations irrelevant.
If Mrs Clinton occasionally wakes in
a cold sweat between now and November, it could be because she's afraid of
something totally out of her control.
Given that Mrs Clinton's poll
standings have closely tracked American confidence in the economy, a financial
collapse could prove devastating to her candidacy.
A terrorist attack on US soil could
also turn the race on its head. Although Mr Trump is widely viewed as
mishandling his response to the Orlando shootings in June, the November attacks
in Paris proved a boon to his primary campaign. A high-profile incident could
make many Americans take another look at those who would be their commander in
chief.
Then there are natural disasters and
the competency of the ensuing government response. Hurricane Sandy helped boost
President Barack Obama's standing in 2012, while Hurricane Katrina devastated
the Republicans in 2005. If tragedy strikes, there's no telling how the
politics of the situation could play out.
Hillary's fear: As any horror movie aficionado knows, the scariest monster
is the one that's unseen. An "October surprise" on the eve of an
election is the under-the-bed bogeyman that every politician dreads.
Smoking
guns
Ms Clinton has seen her ratings for
honesty and trustworthiness damaged by stories relating to donations by foreign
actors to the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private email server while
she was secretary of state.
Although the information that has
emerged has been embarrassing, and the FBI investigation into her email
practices paint an at-times-unflattering picture, they have not presented a
mortal threat to her candidacy… yet.
But what if damning evidence
surfaces - a "smoking gun" that even her supporters can't explain
away? There's currently a batch of 17,000 emails the FBI recovered from Mrs
Clinton's server - documents not originally handed over to the government by
Clinton personnel - that is being reviewed by the state department and will
probably be made public by the end of October.
Then there's the possibility of more
hacked Democratic communications being published by WikiLeaks. The group's
founder, Julian Assange, has already hinted that Clinton-related documents
could come out before the election.
It's all a big question mark.
Political candidates hate question marks.
Hillary's fear: Smoking guns are popular in murder mysteries, but they
rarely happen in big-time politics. Mrs Clinton's opponents have spent the
better part of 30 years supposedly on the verge of uncovering that key bit of
incriminating information, but it never seems to turn up. Only Mrs Clinton
knows if her luck is about to run out.
Shy
Trumpsters
Following the Democratic National
Convention in late July, Mrs Clinton surged to a modest but steady lead in
national polls and a more convincing advantage in key battleground states.
Now, however, Mr Trump appears to be
cutting into her advantage. Many polls show the race tightening, and a few give
the Republican nominee a slight lead.
If the numbers stay close heading
into election day, there's the possibility that the polls could be understating
Mr Trump's support enough for him to end up on top. For instance current survey
models could be downplaying the turnout of white male voters - a key
demographic for the Republican candidate.
There's also the possibility that
respondents are unwilling or embarrassed to tell pollsters they support Trump -
an American version of the "shy
Tory" phenomenon that powered John Major to re-election as
British prime minister in 1992 (and may have resurfaced in 2015's general
election and the Brexit vote).
Hillary's fear: Four years ago Republicans, from presidential nominee Mitt
Romney on down, believed the election eve polls were biased against them. It
turned out the numbers were largely spot on, and Mr Obama cruised to
re-election. Since then, however, there have been some glaring misses - in
Canada, the UK and several US primary races. Much to Mrs Clinton's dismay,
off-kilter polls would be far from the most surprising development in this
presidential election season.
Election
hackers
Mr Trump made headlines in August
when he warned that the election could be rigged against him. While his fears
centred on vague allegations of potential voter fraud, Mrs Clinton has a
different source for her election-day concerns - nefarious digital saboteurs.
While talking to reporters on her
campaign plane on Sunday, she compared recently hacked Democratic committee
emails to a modern-day Watergate break-in. The risk to the US electoral system
could be greater than just purloined communications, however.
The FBI has found evidence that
hackers have breached state-based electoral databases in Illinois and Arizona.
It issued a warning to US election officials to
upgrade their security protocols and be vigilant against future cyber-attacks.
Although it would be extremely
difficult for a hostile actor to surreptitiously alter the outcome of a US
presidential election, even a handful of questionable results in key precincts
could be enough to cast the entire election results in doubt.
Hillary's fear: Given the patchwork nature of US electoral systems, each
managed by state and local officials, ensuring airtight security is nearly
impossible. Against a determined foe, there may be no way to prevent an
electoral doomsday scenario that turns a clear-cut Clinton victory into a legal
morass. That's not just a Clinton nightmare scenario, it's a national one.
Debate
spotlights
The three presidential debates, the
first of which is scheduled for 26 September, are a huge opportunity for Mrs
Clinton to draw contrasts with Mr Trump on knowledge and experience - but they
also have the potential for disaster.
The audience for these debates will
likely be huge, rivalling the 70 million who tuned in for the highly
anticipated vice-presidential showdown between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin in
2008 - or even the record-setting 80 million for the 1980
presidential debate featuring Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter and independent
candidate John Anderson.
Mr Trump is an unconventional
debater, but as he demonstrated in 11 Republican primary face-offs, he can be a
wily opponent. While he was often thin on details, he had a showman's skill on
the stage and kept his opponents off balance.
As the unpolished outsider, Mr Trump
will enter the debates with lower expectations than career politician Clinton.
If he acquits himself well, he could convince reluctant voters to come over to
his side.
Hillary's fear: John Weaver, Ohio Governor John Kasich's campaign
strategist, famously compared the Republican primary debates
to a car race where one driver was intoxicated. For Mrs Clinton the
presidential showdowns will be more like a boxing match with late-career Mike
Tyson. She may feel confident in the ring with Mr Trump, but there's no telling
what he might do.
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